Americans Expected to Spend More Than $1 Trillion This Holiday Season

Tucson, AZ, October 16, 2026 —

Americans are expected to spend more than $1 trillion this holiday season, with total spending projected to rise by more than 4% from last year, according to the National Retail Federation. The forecast points to higher overall spending even as shoppers are expected to remain selective and attentive to prices.

The National Retail Federation attributes shoppers’ price-conscious approach to ongoing inflation and high energy costs. The summary of the forecast does not provide a breakdown of expected spending by product, retailer or region, nor does it specify how much of the projected increase reflects higher prices rather than changes in the amount shoppers buy.

The projection describes anticipated spending across the holiday season as a whole. It does not indicate that spending will rise for every household or category, and the available information does not include estimates for individual shoppers. The forecast therefore combines two broad expectations: a year-over-year increase in total spending and continued caution among consumers deciding what to purchase.

The National Retail Federation’s estimate is a forecast, not a final tally of holiday purchases. The information provided does not specify the forecast’s release date, the exact period covered by “the holiday season,” or the methodology used to calculate the projected total. It also does not give a more precise growth rate beyond saying the increase is greater than 4%.

Further details about spending patterns, including which goods shoppers may prioritize or how inflation and energy costs could affect particular households, were not provided. For now, the forecast signals that aggregate holiday spending is expected to exceed $1 trillion while consumers remain focused on prices.

Story summarized from the original created by Scripps News Group on www.kgun9.com, see more information here.